Case ID: 4194

Solution ID: 12174

Words: 1596

Price $ 75

An English-language PDF of this Brief Case in an academic course pack will allow the students with the opportunity to buy an audio form as well.Groupe Ariel is considering an offer from its Mexican sunsidiary to buy and implement a cost-effective tool at a production unit in Monterrey. The enhancements will enable the facility to mechanize the recyclying and reproduction of toner and printer cases, which is a significant extension of Ariel’s trade in a number of markets. Ariel’s company policy necessitates a discounted cash flow (DCF) evaluation and an approximate for the net present value (NPV) for capital expenses in global avenues of operations and sales. A primary concern for the evaluation is determining the currency that is to be used, the Euro or the peso. The case brings to light the methods of discounted cashflow valuation assessment in a setting that uses multiple currencies and can be included in the course to deliver knowledge pertaining to the fundamental global parity situations in regard with the value of the operating cash flows. Topics of interest include: Project Evaluation, Cross-Border, Capital Budgeting, Net Present Value, Foreign Exchange, Securities Analysis, Parity Condition, DCF Valuation, and Exchange Rate.

**NPV Analysis (Peso)**

*Hurdle rate for Peso*

*Tax rate*

*Time**Cost of purchasing the equipment*

*After tax Cash inflow from the sale of Manual equipment*

*After tax depreciation Depreciation**Cost savings from New equipmentTotal Cash flows*

*PV of cash flows*

*NPV*

* *

*NPV Analysis (Euros)*

*Discount rate in France*

*Expected Inflation in France*

*Expected Inflation in Mexico *

*Forward rate*

*Time*

*Year*

*MXN/EURO*

*Time*

*Year*

**Total Cash flows in Euros**

*PV OF CASH FLOWS*

*NPV IN EUROS**Total cash flows*

*PV OF CASH FLOWS*

*NPV IN EUROS*

Compute the NPV of Ariel-Mexico’s recycling equipment by counting incremental peso cash flows at a peso interest rate. How should this NPV be translated into Euros? Assume expected future inflation for France is 3% per year.

Compute the NPV in €s by translating future peso cash flows into €s at expected future spot rates. Note Ariel’s € hurdle rate for this asset class was 8%. Annual inflation rates are expected to be 7% in Mexico and 3% in France.

Compare the two sets of calculations and the corresponding NPVs. How and why do they differ? Which approach should Arno Martin use? Relate your answer to the textbook’s treatment of parity disequilibria in capital budgeting.

Suppose Mexican inflation is projected at 3% instead of 7% per year. Assume French inflation remains at 3%. How does this affect the NPV calculations?5. Suppose Ariel expects a significant real depreciation of the peso against the Euro. How should Martin incorporate this expectation into his NPV analysis? For simplicity, assume inflation is expected to be 3% in each country. What is its affect on NPV under each of the approaches in questions 1 and 2?6. Firms can face violations of the parity conditions in addition to the parity violation in Question

What might these violations be, and what might be their consequences?

Are there any real options embedded in Ariel’s decision? What is a real option, anyway?

Should Group Ariel approve the equipment to purchase?